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關(guān)鍵詞： 氣候變暖 開花

本期上發(fā)表的一篇論文報(bào)告說，氣候變暖可能會(huì)造成一些常見植物的開花期顯著縮短。這項(xiàng)研究采用基因表達(dá)分析來做這一預(yù)測，并且提出，該方法對預(yù)測氣候變化所帶來的人們尚未研究過的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能會(huì)有用。

在受控的實(shí)驗(yàn)條件下，Akiko Satake及同事模擬了擬南芥的關(guān)鍵開花時(shí)間基因的調(diào)控動(dòng)態(tài)，建立了一個(gè)預(yù)測氣候?qū)@些生命周期事件的影響的方法。然后，他們將該模型應(yīng)用到日本兩個(gè)普通園林區(qū)的擬南芥種群，發(fā)現(xiàn)開花持續(xù)時(shí)間隨變暖逐漸縮短。該小組進(jìn)而提出，溫度升高4.5-5.3°C可能會(huì)*阻止這種多年生植物開花。

由于這一模型準(zhǔn)確重現(xiàn)了基因表達(dá)因氣候變暖而發(fā)生的季節(jié)變化，并且預(yù)測了植物開始開花的時(shí)間以及花期的長度，因此作者提出，它有可能被用在系統(tǒng)性的保護(hù)規(guī)劃中。他們還提出，該方法具有被延伸到用來模擬某些作物品種的基因表達(dá)和對氣候變化的反應(yīng)的潛力。

推薦的英文摘要

Forecasting flowering phenology under climate warming by modelling the regulatory dynamics of flowering-time genes

Akiko Satake,  Tetsuhiro Kawagoe,  Yukari Saburi,  Yukako Chiba,  Gen Sakurai  & Hiroshi Kudoh

Understanding how climate warming has an impact on the life cycle schedule of terrestrial organisms is critical to evaluate ecosystem vulnerability to environmental change. Despite recent advances identifying the molecular basis of temperature responses, few studies have incorporated this knowledge into predictive models. Here we develop a method to forecast flowering phenology by modelling regulatory dynamics of key flowering-time genes in perennial life cycles. The model, parameterized by controlled laboratory experiments, accuray reproduces the seasonal changes in gene expression, the corresponding timing of floral initiation and return to vegetative growth after a period of flowering in complex natural environments. A striking scenario forecast by the model under climate warming is that the shift in the return time to vegetative growth is greater than that in floral initiation, which results in a significant reduction of the flowering period. Our study demonstrates the usefulness of gene expression assessment to predict unexplored risks of climate change.